← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 77% | 79% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.91 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 9% | 7% | 11.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 634.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1901.07 | 1720.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.80 | 9.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| league points | 68.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.61 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 27.77 |
| state index | 1.73 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.64 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |