← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 92% | 91% | 1.05 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 6% | 17.00 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 2% | 4% | 52.77 | value: +90% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 626.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1898.81 | 1494.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.56 | -15.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 65.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.67 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.46 | — |
| state index | 1.90 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.70 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |