← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 35% | 43% | 2.77 | value: +20% |
| Nantes win | 33% | 25% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 50' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 61' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordan Ikoko · Guingamp |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Santy Ngom · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 575.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.13 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1536.08 | 1560.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.33 | -0.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |