← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 74% | 68% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 5.92 | value: +27% |
| Nantes win | 10% | 10% | 10.15 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 227.00 | 592.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1659.69 | 1971.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.28 | -5.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 1.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 69.40 |
| rest days | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 2.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.99 |
| state index | 1.01 | 1.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |