← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 35% | 40% | 2.82 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 33% | 36% | 2.95 | value: +7% |
| Nantes win | 32% | 24% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 40' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 51' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 57' | 🟥 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 88' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 24.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1534.70 | 1565.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.45 | 3.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |