← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 86% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 10.50 | fair |
| Nantes win | 5% | 4% | 21.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 535.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1962.82 | 1652.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.44 | 12.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.52 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.53 | — |
| state index | 1.80 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.82 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |