← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 50% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 21% | 23% | 4.73 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 31' | 🟨 | Giannelli Imbula · Toulouse FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jules Iloki · Nantes |
| 58' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 156.00 | 613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1644.99 | 1609.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.28 | 13.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |