← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 46% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 25% | 30% | 3.98 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 20' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 85' | 🟥 | Hamza Mendyl · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 477.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 4.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1596.47 | 1601.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.57 | -16.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.32 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |