← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 58% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
| Nantes win | 16% | 16% | 6.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Théo Pellenard · Bordeaux |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 45' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 47' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 71' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Igor Lewczuk · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 471.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1719.04 | 1645.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.42 | 34.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 25.74 |
| state index | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |