← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 52% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.49 | fair |
| Caen win | 20% | 22% | 4.79 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Ramy Bensebaini · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 25 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 456.00 | 3013.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1539.73 | 1473.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.00 | 41.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| league points | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |