← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 42% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 29% | 35% | 3.34 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 78' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 85' | 🟥 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1917.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.28 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1458.93 | 1494.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.85 | -38.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |