← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.12 | value: +12% |
| Nantes win | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 13' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 24' | ⚽ | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 41' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 450.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1504.69 | 1546.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.00 | 20.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |