← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 63% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.46 | value: +11% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 15% | 21% | 6.35 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 344.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1667.77 | 1521.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.25 | -27.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |