← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 19% | 22% | 5.24 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kader Mangane · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 40' | 🟨 | Martin Terrier · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 63' | ⚽ | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 422.00 | 422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1510.57 | 1533.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.21 | 16.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |