← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 43% | 37% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.31 | value: +27% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 27% | 24% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 543.00 | 421.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1596.11 | 1613.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | -6.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.16 | 24.26 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |