← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 16' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 26' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 34' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
| 51' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 74' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 78' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 164.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1622.47 | 1596.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.50 | -8.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 29.19 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |