← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 68% | 55% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.04 | value: +26% |
| OGC Nice win | 13% | 20% | 7.52 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 364.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1766.91 | 1941.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.45 | 19.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| league points | 74.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | 2.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 28.78 |
| state index | 1.04 | 1.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.67 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |