← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 47% | 49% | 2.10 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 25% | 23% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 75' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Lille OSC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 118.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1622.18 | 1640.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | -0.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 39.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 25.30 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |