← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 84% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 10.28 | value: +15% |
| Montpellier win | 5% | 5% | 19.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 325.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1938.31 | 1625.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.00 | -11.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 77.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 26.35 |
| state index | 1.73 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |