← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 74% | 73% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.79 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 9% | 10% | 10.86 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 12' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 2114.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1592.51 | 1930.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.59 | 23.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.86 |
| league points | 39.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 26.31 |
| state index | 0.27 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |