← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 9.33 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 5% | 7% | 20.51 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 312.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1926.94 | 1604.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.08 | 3.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.56 |
| league points | 68.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.99 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 29.05 |
| state index | 1.77 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |