← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 39% | 34% | 2.51 | fair |
| Nantes win | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 20' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Nantes |
| 42' | 🟨 | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 49' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 50' | ⚽ | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Nantes |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1485.33 | 1604.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.52 | -15.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.82 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |