← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 44% | 44% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.19 | fair |
| Nantes win | 25% | 28% | 3.89 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 63' | ⚽ | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 71' | 🟥 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 155.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1560.36 | 1460.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.26 | -21.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |