← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 36% | 41% | 2.73 | value: +11% |
| Nantes win | 32% | 28% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Arnold Mvuemba · FC Lorient |
| 40' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 42' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Zargo Touré · FC Lorient |
| 74' | ⚽ | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Ciani · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Moreira · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enock Kwateng · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 14.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1468.40 | 1480.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.55 | -16.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 50.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.13 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |