← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 43% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ribeiro · FC Augsburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Ribeiro · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Kento Shiogai · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jeanuël Belocian · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 204.00 | 416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1659.42 | 1665.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.78 | 22.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.16 |