← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 88% | 90% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 7% | 14.25 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 5% | 3% | 24.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −2.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81% | 80% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Lennart Karl · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kacper Potulski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Danny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kacper Potulski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 531.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.34 |
| elo | 2021.53 | 1632.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.67 | -36.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 37.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.95 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.85 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.94 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.58 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 0.94 |