← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 51% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 21% | 4.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | James Sands · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Martijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 45' | 🟥 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Martijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 69' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kaufmann · Heidenheim |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 530.00 | 6678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1581.46 | 1596.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.80 | 13.18 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -1.03 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 27.43 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.81 |