← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 49% | 60% | 1.97 | value: +18% |
| Wolfsburg win | 27% | 19% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Brown · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 67' | ⚽ | Aaron Zehnter · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Koulierakis · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denis Vavro · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Michy Batshuayi · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 121.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1751.41 | 1589.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.89 | -28.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.99 |