← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Exner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 37% | 35% | 2.69 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 35% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.59 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 52% | 1.97 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Christian Kofane · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Mewa Arena |
| 83' | 🟨 | Eliesse Ben Seghir · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Martin Terrier · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Bøving · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Armindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 109.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1674.77 | 1865.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.50 | -8.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 1.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.85 |