← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 50% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund |
| 34' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 37' | 🟨 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Andreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Yan Couto · Borussia Dortmund |
| 67' | ⚽ | Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund |
| 74' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 85' | 🟥 | Filippo Mané · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 89' | ⚽ | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 418.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1624.82 | 1866.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.10 | 49.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 1.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.16 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 2.00 |