← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 38% | 39% | 2.64 | value: +3% |
| Bochum win | 36% | 33% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bochum +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Bochum |
| 27' | ⚽ | Rasmus Kristensen · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jean-Mattéo Bahoya · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jean-Mattéo Bahoya · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 73' | ⚽ | Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum |
| 76' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 85' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days |
| 74.00 |
| 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1541.60 | 1748.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.67 | -5.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.52 |