← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Borussia Dortmund −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 56' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 60' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 81' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 89' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 89' | 🟥 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 89' | 🟨 | Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julien Duranville · Borussia Dortmund |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| 90' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1749.31 | 1762.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.40 | -7.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 24.65 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.87 |