← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 50% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 23% | 18% | 4.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand