← Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 74% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.85 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 9% | 7% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand