← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.55 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 73% | 70% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand