← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 46% | 52% | 2.12 | value: +10% |
| Bochum win | 29% | 22% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bochum −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Nathan N'Goumou · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 30' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Weigl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florian Neuhaus · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Lainer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Manuel Riemann · Bochum |
| 64' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 72' | ⚽ | Rocco Reitz · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 75' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jordan Siebatcheu |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | BORUSSIA-PARK |
| 87' | ⚽ | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 90' | ⚽ | Franck Honorat · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 268.00 |
| 541.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1613.91 | 1598.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.89 | 25.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.39 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.55 | — |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 2.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.09 |