← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 73% | 71% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.54 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 12% | 14% | 8.50 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| FC Augsburg +1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 68% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 118.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1632.91 | 1985.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.86 | -2.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 2.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.31 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 15.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 1.89 |
| solidity v1 | -1.44 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 28.31 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 0.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 2.46 |