← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 54% | 50% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Bochum win | 22% | 25% | 4.47 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Bochum |
| 41' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 42' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Bochum |
| 50' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Massimo · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 506.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1641.37 | 1752.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.22 | -2.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.83 | 25.17 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 2.01 |