← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 72% | 69% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.10 | value: +11% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 11% | 13% | 8.64 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 40' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 62' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 70' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 745.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1898.34 | 1709.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.04 | -8.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 29.22 |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 1.38 |