← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 65% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.78 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 15% | 12% | 6.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| RB Leipzig −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 51% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 49% | 2.47 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 19' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 40' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 43' | ⚽ | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | 🟥 | Mathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln |
| 85' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 13 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Leipzig Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Luca Kilian · 1. FC Köln |
| 88' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 696.00 | 849.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1906.31 | 1655.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.23 | -33.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | — |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.44 |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.45 |