← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 66% | 69% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.10 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 12% | 6.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| RB Leipzig +1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 57% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 43% | 2.63 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 24' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 46' | 🟨 | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 50' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Darmstadt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matej Maglica · Darmstadt |
| 68' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 71' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 🟨 |
| Jannik Müller · Darmstadt |
| 72' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 842.00 | 689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1541.71 | 1827.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.12 | 20.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.95 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -2.75 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.37 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.21 |