← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 17, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Darmstadt win | 40% | 33% | 2.42 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 33% | 38% | 2.94 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.71 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 47% | 2.37 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 8 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |