← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, May 12, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
| Hertha win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hertha −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lucas Tousart · Hertha |
| 23' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 33' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Hertha |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 39' | ⚽ | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 69' | ⚽ | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 28 | Shots | 9 |
| 15 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 78' | 🟨 | Agustín Rogel · Hertha |
| 81' | ⚽ | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 680.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1694.71 | 1572.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.33 | -27.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 38.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 27.09 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.96 |