← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 41% | 44% | 2.37 | value: +4% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 27' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Hertha |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 21.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1579.43 | 1629.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.21 | -19.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -1.23 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 28.69 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.34 |