← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 41% | 48% | 2.41 | value: +15% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 34% | 28% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| 86' | 🟨 | Giovanni Reyna · Borussia Dortmund |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Silas · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giovanni Reyna · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Silas · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 14.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1616.73 | 1892.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.18 | 6.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.16 |