← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 79% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 7% | 11% | 15.00 | value: +59% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RB Leipzig −2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.64 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 10' | ⚽ | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 32' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 48' | 🟨 | Iago Borduchi · FC Augsburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Silva · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 500.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1850.31 | 1611.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.69 | -6.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 48.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 25.78 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 0.99 |