← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 81% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 12% | 11.50 | value: +38% |
| FC Augsburg win | 4% | 7% | 26.00 | value: +70% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Augsburg −2.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mergim Berisha · FC Augsburg |
| 15' | ⚽ | João Cancelo · FC Bayern München |
| 18' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 18' | ⚽ | Benjamin Pavard · FC Bayern München |
| 35' | ⚽ | Benjamin Pavard · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Mergim Berisha · FC Augsburg |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · FC Bayern München |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 10.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 2004.47 | 1626.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.99 | 7.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 49.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 25.87 |
| state index | 1.65 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.01 |