← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 5, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 64% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.46 | fair |
| Hertha win | 14% | 23% | 7.00 | value: +62% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hertha −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 60% | 1.80 | value: +7% |
| Under | 46% | 40% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sardar Azmoun · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 60' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 73' | ⚽ | Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 155.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1772.66 | 1611.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.71 | 17.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| league points | 28.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 27.22 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.16 |