← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | value: +4% |
| SC Freiburg win | 19% | 16% | 5.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| SC Freiburg −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · SC Freiburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Giovanni Reyna · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 4083.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1778.64 | 1732.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.25 | -13.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| league points | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.02 | — |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.47 |