← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 37% | 42% | 2.66 | value: +13% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 37% | 29% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 65% | 1.61 | value: +5% |
| Under | 40% | 35% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand